Former president Donald Trump who has recently released the second series of his NFT collection has predicted that a “very big recession” is on its way. His claim is further supported by the U.S. economic data which suggests that a recession is indeed coming.
Expert’s Take on The Recession Issue in the US
Moreover, as per the chief executive of financial advisory firm Longview Economics, respective market investors may need to prepare for some pain in the stock market. In the past, Chris Watling asserted that a recession was imminent, using what he called “pretty compelling” and “brutally bad” leading economic indicators.
Last Thursday, the Conference Board claimed that the Leading Economic Index for the U.S. dramatically fell by 1.2% in March, which pushed it to its lowest level since November 2020. The said data is deemed to be a reflection of the current economic weakness which could soon intensify and spread throughout the U.S. economy.
A recession would most likely occur one year or so after the Treasury yield curve inverted twice in 2022, first in March and then again in the months that followed, according to Watling in addition to these warning signs.
Watling continued to claim that whenever the United States experienced it, a recession followed. He asserted, “I think it’s coming, it’s on its way,” in light of this. The only problem is timing, according to Watling.
The International Monetary Fund said this week that the recent strength of the U.S. labor market and consumer spending had taken it by surprise, despite the fact that innumerable economists had been issuing warnings about the impending recession.
One may recall that on April 11, 2011. In its most recent World Economic Outlook report, the International Monetary Fund predicted that the world’s largest economy will grow by 1.6% this year, up from the 1% predicted for 2022.
Gita Gopinath, the first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Organization, asserted this week that the organization had reason to believe the U.S. economy could avoid a recession because of indicators of slowing inflation statistics. A ‘so-called hard landing,’ however, was still “within the realm of possibilities,” she added.
US Earnings Projections Deemed to be ‘Way Overly Ambitious’
When asked if the equity markets will survive a projected economic slump relatively undamaged, Watling answered, “I mean, they won’t come through it unscathed in our opinion.” I’m not really clear on what you mean by “relatively.”
He also claimed that profit margins will reach new highs in 2021 and 2022 and that with so much inflation in the market, the market might achieve extremely good operating leverage, allowing for record-high profit margins.